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[YesAuto News] Before the release of the new subsidy policy in 2019, I wrote an article “Why should consumers pay for the price increase in the electric car market”, which introduced how electric car companies responded to the decline in subsidies during that period expected. After a month, the new subsidy policy has now been issued. How should these companies respond when they face a decline that exceeds expectations? Have consumers passed the best time to buy electric vehicles? Faced with the above questions, I hope to find the answers you want through this article.

■ Quickly understand the core points of this article in 30 seconds:

1: During the transition period of the subsidy policy in 2019, most auto companies have introduced price-insuring policies, and the impact of subsidy decline is not significant.

2: Traditional car companies mostly use full price insuring, while new car-building forces are a little bit stingy.

3: After the subsidy transition period, the electric vehicle market may usher in a price earthquake, and with a bloody reshuffle, the electric vehicle market will move from a blue ocean to a deep red.

4: my country's electric vehicle market is in a critical period of changing from policy-oriented to market-oriented. Both orientations have put forward unprecedented high requirements on the technical level and cost control of electric vehicles, which will surely accelerate the development of this industry.

■Small things before the storm: prices are relatively stable during the transition period

On March 26, the state officially introduced the 2019 new energy passenger vehicle subsidy policy. Although the decline is unprecedented, it also leaves a transition period for electric car companies. Although there is still a considerable reduction in the subsidy amount during the transition period, at least the price of electric vehicles will not fluctuate significantly. In the face of this situation, many auto companies have introduced price-insured policies for electric vehicles during the transition period.

Survey of popular electric car prices after subsidies in 2019
Model 2018 price after subsidy (ten thousand yuan) Current selling price in Beijing (ten thousand yuan) Remarks

BAIC New Energy EU5 R500

Zhishang Edition

13.59 No change The official price insured policy has not been released, and the price may be adjusted at any time

SAIC Roewe MARVEL X

Rear drive version

26.88 No change Fully insured until June 25

BYD Qin Pro EV500

Zhilian Leading Type

18.99 No change Fully insured until June 25

Trumpchi GE3 530

Internet Premium Edition

15.58 No change The deadline for the full subsidy has not been announced, and the 4s store sales indicate that it may be the end of April

Geely Emgrand GSe

Honorable

14.58 No change Full insured price ends on April 30

Chery Arrizo 5e 450

Smart Cool Edition

12.98 No change Fully insured until June 25

Future K50

68.68 No change Uniform selling price, not affected by subsidies

NIO ES8

Benchmark version

38.05 ↑ 40.75 As of June 25, the subsidy is 40,500 yuan

Xiaopeng Motors G3

Premium Edition

19.98 19.98 The price has been raised by 34,000 before the introduction of the subsidy policy

Xinte DEV1

Chuang Rui Edition

7.79 No change The price has been raised by 6 thousand before the subsidy policy was introduced

Nezha N01

380s

6.98 7.68 After the introduction of the subsidy policy, the price will be adjusted to 7,000

Weimar EX5 500

Extra Innovation Edition

16.48 17.48 The original subsidy price plus 10,000, as of 20 o'clock on April 10

Through the above survey, we can see that most of the established car companies choose to pay out of their pockets to maintain the same price as after the subsidy in 2018. These companies are dominated by established auto companies such as BAIC New Energy, BYD, SAIC Roewe, GAC New Energy, Geely, and Chery. It is worth noting that although BAIC New Energy has not made an official price-insurance statement, 4S store sales said that it still continues to sell electric vehicles at the price after the subsidy in 2018. As for when to adjust the price, it needs to wait for higher-level notification.

Compared with the traditional car companies that are arrogant, among the new car companies, according to the editors’ understanding, only the future has launched a full price insurance policy, and the official stated that its product prices are customized under the premise of excluding the impact of subsidies, so the subsidy changes Will not affect the selling price. The price insuring policies of most of the remaining new car companies are relatively “stingy” and different.

In addition, some new car companies choose to simply and rudely increase the price of their models to cope with the decline in subsidies. Among them, Xinte and Xiaopeng Motors completed the price increase of their models as early as before the release of the subsidy policy in 2019. The Nezha N01 under Hezhong Auto increased its price after the policy was released, and the price of all its models increased by 7,000 yuan. It is worth mentioning that none of the electric models of these three companies have a battery life of more than 400km, so they belong to the group that has a greater impact on subsidies.

However, have you discovered that almost all electric vehicle companies have price-insured policies until June 25, which is the final time limit of the transition period. What will happen to this time node?

■The bayonet sees blood: a real fight after the transition period

Through the above, we can see that after the new subsidy policy was issued in 2019, the electric vehicle market has responded positively. A large number of companies are willing to pay out of their pockets during the transition period to fill the price gap of the subsidy decline. The overall market pricing has not fluctuated significantly. Even after the author's interview, some electric models in Beijing's 4S stores have been snapped up and sold out. However, we must also be aware that the current peaceful atmosphere is actually just the tranquility before the storm. Why do you say that? Let's take a look at the difference in subsidies between the old and new policies for several popular pure electric models.

Remember at the end of last year, when the industry talked about the decline in subsidies, some experts said that the decline should not be higher than 30%? However, in fact, the amount of state subsidies in 2019 has been reduced by 50% compared with the previous year, far exceeding expectations. Not only that, the local subsidies, which accounted for a large proportion, have even been cancelled indirectly (if local subsidies are still subsidized, the state will make corresponding deductions). So we will see that under the New Subsidy Policy in 2019, provinces like Beijing with higher local subsidies will face a cliff-like subsidy decline.

List of new energy subsidies to pure electric passenger vehicle endurance subsidies over the years (unit: ten thousand yuan)
Range of pure electric passenger car 100≤R<150 100≤R<150 150≤R<200 200≤R<250 250≤R<300 300≤R<400 R≥400
2019 year 0 0 0 0 1.8 1.8 2.5
2018 0 0 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.5 5
2017 0 2 3.6 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.4
2016 0 2.5 4.5 3.6 4.4 5.5 5.5
2015 3.15 3.15 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.4
Year 2014 2.825 2.825 4.75 4.75 5.7 5.7 5.7
year 2013 3.5 3.5 5 5 6 6 6
Watchmaking: Auto House Industry Channel

In my previous article, I used to predict that high-endurance models will be very resilient based on previous subsidy policies. However, under the New Deal, even if the maximum threshold of 400km is exceeded, the subsidy amount is only 25,000, which is a full 50% lower than last year. , While electric vehicles with a battery life of less than 250km will directly cancel the subsidy.

Not only that, the country has more stringent requirements on the energy density of power batteries, and the subsidy coefficient has been greatly reduced from the highest 1.2 to the highest 1. Coupled with the increase in the power consumption threshold, I want to obtain a subsidy bonus through these two coefficients. It's not realistic anymore, and even getting 1 has become very difficult.

In the face of such a decline, if electric car companies still want to stabilize their prices at 2018 levels, it will undoubtedly be tantamount to their own destruction, especially for the entry-level electric car market where profits are low. Therefore, it is not difficult to foresee that after June 25, the domestic electric car market may usher in a price earthquake, and with a bloody reshuffle, the electric car market will move from a blue ocean to a deep red. .

■Summary: This is not a winter for consumers

At present, my country's electric vehicle market is in a critical period of transition from policy-oriented to market-oriented. Both orientations have put forward unprecedented high requirements on the technical level and cost control of electric vehicles, which will surely accelerate the development of this industry. Don't forget, there are also the catalysts for Tesla's sole proprietorship to enter the Chinese market and a number of joint venture electric vehicle companies to deploy new energy vehicles in China. Under the comprehensive influence, my country's electric vehicle market will leapfrog the closed development, and develop in a more open, mature, and more competitive direction. Therefore, the good show is yet to come.

I believe that because the content of this article only investigated the price samples in Beijing, it is not enough to meet the needs of readers across the country for understanding the local electric vehicle market, so what should we do? In the next few days, Autohome will conduct field surveys in four places to understand the changes in market conditions in various regions after the release of the new subsidy policy in 2019. In addition, we will also interview dealers, car buyers and car companies on the current state of the electric vehicle market attitude and views, so stay tuned.

We have added a voting window at the end of the article, and you are welcome to express your views on the sharp decline in subsidies in 2019.