[YesAuto News] Recently, news about “global semiconductor chip supply is tight, and many auto companies have been forced to suspend production since December” have been overwhelming, causing great concern from the auto industry. Affected by this incident, car companies may not be able to complete the established production tasks and will be forced to face a crisis of production suspension. Does this mean that the vehicles purchased by consumers will not be delivered on time, and the road to waiting for the car will become a long way off?
So, is this really the case in reality? In order to understand the actual production capacity of some auto brands and the inventory of dealers, we conducted relevant investigations. Answer the questions that consumers are concerned about, such as ” Which companies may face a production suspension crisis? “, ” How will they be affected during the car purchase process ?”, “What is the real inventory situation of dealers? ” and other questions.
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1. With the continuous upgrading of chip-related technologies, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and communication base stations have blossomed, and the demand for driver chips has become increasingly strong. Affected by the global epidemic this year, chip assembly plants in Southeast Asia were forced to suspend production. At the same time, chip supply has also entered a state of tension;
2. The current serious shortage of chip production capacity will directly affect the production of two modules, ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) and ECO (Intelligent Engine Control System). It is understood that the main domestic suppliers of this module are Continental and Bosch. At present, it can almost be said to be a standard item in the passenger car field;
3. FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen’s exploded factories have stopped production due to insufficient chip supply, and the official response to this is “still in normal production”;
4. The inventory status survey of the three enterprise dealers shows that FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, Guangqi Honda has a variety of hot-selling models available now, and some models can also enjoy discounts.
● Will it affect consumers buying a car?
According to reports, Volkswagen brands, including FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen, were the first to be affected by the production suspension. Subsequently, Guangqi Honda was also exposed, “Due to the insufficient supply of chips, the production of small cars is limited, and the supply of some models is cut off.” The main reason for the suspension of production of car companies is the insufficient supply of chips, especially high-end semiconductor chips.
In response, FAW-Volkswagen responded to the media: “Currently, its Volkswagen, Audi and Jetta brands are still in normal production and have not been affected.” The relevant person in charge of SAIC Volkswagen also said that the company's current production is normal.
Based on this situation, we called some dealers in Beijing to find out the current inventory of some dealers of Volkswagen brands and Honda brands.
|Inventory status of hot-selling models of some brands|
|FAW-Volkswagen||Magotan/Golf||Adequate inventory||Beijing Youlian Weike Automobile Sales Service Co., Ltd.|
|FAW-Volkswagen||Tanyue||Adequate inventory||Beijing Youlian Weike Automobile Sales Service Co., Ltd.|
|SAIC Volkswagen||LaVida/Passat||Adequate inventory||Beijing Guofuxin Automobile Trading Co., Ltd.|
|SAIC Volkswagen||Tuang/Tiguan L||Sufficient inventory (Tuon discounted 50,000; Tiguan L discounted 35,000)||Beijing Zhenhaotai Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.|
|Guangqi Honda||Fit / Accord / Hao Ying / Bin Zhi||Sufficient inventory (reservation required for weekend test rides/test drives)||Guangqi Honda (China Automobile Store)|
From what we have learned, some FAW-Volkswagen dealers currently have sufficient inventory. For example, the stores of Magotan, Golf, and Tanyue models all indicated that there are enough cars available, which is convenient for consumers to come and buy. There are also some existing cars under the SAIC Volkswagen brand, including Lavida, Passat, Touron, and Tiguan L. In addition, near the end of the year, SAIC Volkswagen dealers also provide a large number of preferential activities.
At GAC Honda dealerships, Fit, Accord, Haoying, and Binzhi currently have cars available, and consumers can quickly pick up cars when they enter the store. Regarding the brand or the discontinuation of some models due to insufficient chip supply, the sales staff of the above-mentioned brand dealers are not clear.
In addition, we also understand that Great Wall Motor's production line has also maintained normal operation, and there have been no problems such as insufficient production capacity or production suspension due to chip emergency. However, we still need to be vigilant, it is an indisputable fact that the current chip supply capacity is insufficient, and it cannot be ruled out that the follow-up may have a certain impact on global automakers.
Therefore, for consumers, with sufficient funds, they can choose to implement a car purchase plan in advance. If car companies experience shortages of production capacity due to chip emergency, it is not ruled out that they will face waiting for car purchases.
● Why is chip production in a hurry?
At present, with the continuous upgrading of chip-related technologies, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and communication base stations have blossomed, and the demand for driver chips has become increasingly strong. As consumer demand continues to rise, market supply has become severely tight. Not only in the automotive industry, but also in other industries there is an imbalance between supply and demand.
Among them, there is the well-known Apple mobile phone. Since the launch of the Apple 12 series, a series of hunger marketing has been launched. Consumers can only order new mobile phones by making an appointment. Although this is Apple's consistent “routine” for the launch of new products, from another perspective, both Apple and non-Apple mobile phones generally use a large number of OLED screens, which greatly increases the demand for NOR chips among them.
But the reality is that this year, affected by the global epidemic, the chip assembly plants in Southeast Asia were forced to suspend production. At the same time, chip supply has also entered a state of tension. You should know that a complete chip manufacturing process includes chip design-foundry-packaging and testing, and the epidemic has made chip manufacturing, which is already a little tight, even worse.
Once the chip production capacity is in a hurry, this will directly affect the production of the two modules, ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) and ECO (Intelligent Engine Control System). It is understood that the main domestic suppliers of this module are Continental and Bosch. At present, it can almost be said to be a standard item in the passenger car field.
According to reports, TSMC, UMC and other wafer foundries have full orders in the fourth quarter, and the advanced process and mature process capacity in the first half of next year have been fully booked by customers. Domestic wafer foundries such as China Resources Micro, Silan Micro and other 8-inch and below 8-inch production capacity are also operating at full capacity. The third quarterly report of SMIC shows: the company's factories are fully loaded and the capacity utilization rate in the third quarter is 97.8%; forecast In the fourth quarter, the capacity gap in mature processes such as 40 nanometers is still large.
At the same time, the recent release of demand for automotive chips has further caused the production capacity of foundries to be tight, and the chip delivery period will be extended by another 2-4 weeks, and some chips have been delivered for more than 40 weeks.
It is understood that due to the tight global supply of semiconductor chips, some auto chip manufacturers have begun to increase prices. A few days ago, a price increase letter about the leading automotive chip manufacturer NXP (NXP Semiconductors, referred to as: NXP) showed: On October 26, NXP told customers that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, NXP is facing serious product shortages and raw material costs. The double impact of the increase decided to increase product prices across the board.
● The chip is in a hurry, what impact will it have on the auto industry?
If electrification is to start the first half of the automotive revolution, then the second half depends on intelligence. Especially with the official release of “Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0”, China has entered the era of intelligent vehicles.
Among them, the indispensable is car-level chips, that is, automotive chips, which are suitable for automotive electronic component specifications. Such electronic components are widely used in automotive components, including multimedia entertainment systems, smart keys, automatic parking systems, engine and transmission control systems, airbags, driving assistance systems, electric power steering, ABS, electronic stability systems (ESP), pedestrian protection, tire pressure control, power windows, light control, air conditioning system, seat adjustment system, etc. Especially in the intelligent driving system, the processing chip is the most critical component, and its performance directly affects the quality of the automatic driving system.
We can boldly guess that due to the impact of this part of the production capacity, although the current car companies can still meet part of the consumer's car purchase needs, it does not rule out that when there is a serious shortage of production capacity, the car companies may be forced to face a crisis of production suspension.
Huang Chongren, chairman of Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., said that due to the slowing down of the epidemic, all industries will be booming in the first half of next year. With the continuous increase in applications such as 5G and AI, the demand for semiconductors will only increase. Relevant figures in the chip industry estimate that based on customer orders, the tight production capacity will continue at least after the second quarter of 2021. Especially for the semiconductor and packaging and testing industries, there may be a “low season” situation. Therefore, both parts and components applications and vehicle companies must also pay attention to prevent problems before they occur.
Full text summary:
From this point of view, the urgent production capacity of core chips has become the sword of Damocles hanging on the heads of car companies and component suppliers. This has to make us maintain a high degree of vigilance. Although the current industry situation may be in a state of chip tension, we do not need to be overly nervous. Generally, car companies and their parts suppliers will keep some additional parts in stock to ensure the orderly production of production capacity. At present, consumers don't need to worry too much.
At present, the technology of R&D, production, and manufacturing of chips has been upgraded to a technological contest between countries. According to previous statistics, the global automotive chip market scale in 2019 is about 47.5 billion U.S. dollars, while the scale of my country's independent automotive chip industry is less than 15 billion yuan, accounting for less than 4.5%, and the scale of my country's automotive industry in the world accounts for more than 30% The gap is huge. It is reported that at present, autonomous car chips are mostly used in simple systems such as body electronics, and the market share of imported chips is as high as 95%. The key chips related to advanced sensors, in-vehicle networks, three-electric systems, chassis electronic control, ADAS, automatic driving, etc. are all foreign Corporate monopoly.
From this data, we can see that my country still needs to improve in the field of chips. In the future of the development of smart cars, today’s chip emergency may be just a warning. Only by mastering the core technology of the chip and mastering the security of the chip can the future of smart cars be mastered.