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[YesAuto News] When those around you who are not very interested in cars start to talk about the topic of “the future belongs to electric vehicles”, you can basically be sure that the government is very serious about new energy, which is actually not a new energy. Yes, it's just that we are more tactful in writing about this trend, compared to what the UK says.

On November 18, local time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a “ten-point plan” on energy methods and environmental protection. The fourth point is that in 2030, the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars and trucks will be stopped; to In 2035, the sale of hybrid vehicles will cease. At the same time, the UK’s national infrastructure will be improved to better support electric vehicles. The United Kingdom will thus become the first country in the G7 to achieve decarbonization of road transport. The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles after 10 years is a very bold and ambitious goal. On this topic, we must find the directly affected “parties” and close friends to talk about.

British Editor: Tyler Heatley
Willing to embrace but full of worries

     The first person to appear was Tyler, who was in the “epicenter”. Although many media have reported on the ban on sales in 2030 before, it will still be a little surprising after the announcement. After all, from the current situation, the ban is banned. After selling pure gasoline and pure diesel vehicles, there are still many problems to be solved.

“As a car fan, I actually do not reject electric cars. On the contrary, many of the characteristics of electric cars make me very fond of them, such as the power response without waiting, the refreshing acceleration brought by the burst of instantaneous torque, and the smoothness. Power output, etc. are all very attractive features, some of which can only be experienced in expensive supercars, but after the emergence of electric cars, the threshold of this experience is lowered. This is a very good thing. But at the same time , Some of the current shortcomings of electric vehicles are also more troublesome. For example, poor battery life, inconvenient charging, etc.” Tyler said.

“I live in an ordinary apartment now. There is no charging pile at home, no parking space on the roadside, and no yard. Of course, there is no yard to install charging piles for me. If I want to charge, I can only go to a dedicated electric charging station to solve the problem. Nowadays, The situation is that the high-power charging piles of hundreds of kilowatts are only exclusive to Teslas. An ordinary electric car with a battery life of more than 200 miles (more than 320 kilometers) basically needs 3 or 4 hours to be fully charged. Half an hour’s life is really a headache.” Tyler’s complaints about charging facilities are not over. “London’s support for electric vehicles is pretty good now. In addition to opening more charging stations, some communities have integrated charging piles. It’s really a smart way to put it in a street light pole, but if you calculate it proportionally, there will only be one charging station for every 5 cars. If one day all the cars have to be charged, don’t you have to stay up late to line up? In fact, according to AA According to the data, more than one-third of car owners in the UK don’t even have a roadside parking space. It’s so difficult to talk about charging.”

In addition, Tyler has also thought about the diversity of models. After all, it is backed by one of the most extensively flavored markets in the world, because the ban on the sale of many traditional and character gasoline and diesel vehicles will certainly disappoint consumers. . “The ban on fuel vehicles will not only make the market full of electric vehicles, but also affect the diversity of choices. Similar things may actually happen during Brexit, because a hard Brexit without a deal will give a lot of money. Manufacturers bring losses, and when the United Kingdom no longer belongs to the European Union, many regulatory matters have to be re-adapted, which will increase a lot of additional costs for manufacturers. If it is not worthwhile, it is possible to cut off certain models to the United Kingdom. It is conceivable that after the promulgation of the prohibition on the sale of fuel vehicles, more manufacturers and more models will make this kind of thinking. For example, the new Nissan 400Z released some time ago, because of the exhaustion regulations and missed the UK Marketing.”

German editor: Mathias Keiber
The new timetable brings new challenges to the industry

In addition to changes in product and user experience, changes in automotive energy will pose a more severe challenge to the entire industry. After all, in the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain, many suppliers and related units are involved. Whether they can issue response measures in a timely manner has a great impact on whether they can achieve the goal in 2030.

In fact, when the relevant authorities in the United Kingdom proposed to ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2017, the expected time point was 2040. At that time, many people in the British industry felt that this node was relatively early. After that, in early 2020, the time point of the ban was advanced to 2035. It is obvious that the changes in the automobile consumer market in the past two years have given the government some sweetness. At the moment, this time is finally set in 2030.

“In my opinion, 2035 is actually a relatively reasonable time, and this is also the time that many countries and regions are focusing on, such as California. California has the most stringent emission regulations in the United States, and the environmental protection requirements for automobiles there are higher. And the advantage is that California has been popularizing low-emission vehicles for a long time. Even Hollywood stars have given Prius and Tesla platforms. The mass base can be imagined. Under such circumstances, they still choose In 2035, it is clear that we want to make the fuel switching of cars more smooth and natural.” Mathias said.

“Don’t forget that the UK’s current auto industry is dominated by luxury cars, SUVs, and high-performance sports cars. From the perspective of emissions and environmental protection, these cars are the easiest products to “out-of-class”. Therefore, the prohibition on fuel vehicles Sales actually set up a specific time for them to switch energy. I remember that Bentley made a statement earlier, claiming that it will become a brand that only produces pure electric products in 2030, which is a big problem for the current version of pure electric models. The brand is very ambitious, which means that its Bengal, Flying Spur and Continental GT will all be converted into electric vehicles. Of course, in the ten-point plan, the British government has set the hybrid power ban period at 2035 Of course, the premise is that there must be considerable pure electric cruising range. Although the mileage has not yet been finalized, for the main high-performance brands, how much is a buffer opportunity.”

“But the good news is that while the sale is banned, the British government has also given a clear support plan, which includes 12 billion pounds (about 103.2 billion yuan).” The government hopes to subsidize new energy sources. 250,000 new jobs were created in the process of transformation, specifically in battery development and manufacturing, carbon capture and other green energy sources. Among them, there will be 50,000 new jobs at 1 billion pounds (about 8.6 billion yuan) in the industrial core areas of northeast and central Britain, and these are the best supplement to the research and development of batteries in the automotive industry. “In addition, Mathias also mentioned the views of some industry leaders on this matter: “For example, former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer thinks this is a good opportunity to stimulate automakers to keep up with the times and make changes. It can even force some companies to abandon the authorization to purchase other battery companies and increase their own R&D efforts. There are certain development opportunities in it, but the work that needs to be done is very arduous. “

Chinese editor: the author of this article
The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles needs to be adapted to local conditions and combined with energy structure

Speaking of banning the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, we actually have a precedent. In March 2019, Hainan Province announced that it would ban the sale of fuel vehicles in the province from 2030. The general idea is to differentiate according to the field of use, with the public service category first, and the private use scenario following. It shows that buses, taxis, and government official vehicles will be replaced with clean energy models, and new energy models will be gradually promoted to all aspects of social operations, such as sanitation, logistics, and time-sharing leasing. In the field of private use, residents will gradually be guided to switch to new energy vehicles. One of the measures is to provide subsidies, which is the same as the current policy adopted by the United Kingdom.

Of course, regardless of related supporting facilities, talking about electrification is a hooliganism. With reference to the current situation in Hainan, charging piles are under continuous construction. According to data released by the Hainan Provincial Government, the overall vehicle-to-stack ratio of new energy vehicles across the province is close to 3.5:1, and it is expected that by the end of 2020, the overall vehicle-to-stack ratio of the charging infrastructure in the province will be less than 3:1.

It is worth mentioning that, in addition to financial subsidies for the construction of charging piles and battery research and development, the “Ten Point Plan” announced by the United Kingdom this time also paid attention to where the electricity comes from. 525 million pounds (approximately 4.5 billion yuan) of the subsidy is planned for the new nuclear power plant project, which plays a “permanent cure” role for the increasing demand for electricity after the total ban on the sale of fuel vehicles.

With the increasing number of electric vehicles, the demand for electricity will obviously gradually rise, and the pressure on the grid will also increase. This has been reflected in the peak electricity consumption time in summer in some parts of our country. However, the British National Grid seems to be well prepared. They said that the existing power grid has a lot of margins and the power supply capacity is also very sufficient. Even if all vehicles in the UK become electric overnight, the demand for electricity will only increase by 10%. %, the pressure is not great. What's more, judging from the current inventory of 30 million fuel vehicles in the UK market, it will take at least 15 years to replace all of them with pure electric vehicles, so the time left for the construction of the power grid is very sufficient.

When it comes to clean energy, we have to mention the slowly emerging form of hydrogen fuel cells. From the product perspective, there are currently three models with mature technology and good results: Hyundai Nexo, Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity. However, the reason why it has not been spread globally at present is that the production and storage of hydrogen energy itself is a relatively serious problem, in addition to the high manufacturing cost of the car itself. Compared to building a hydrogen refueling station, charging piles may be more in line with the demand for rapid deployment. As far as China’s current situation is concerned, the state has issued relevant policies to encourage the development of the hydrogen energy industry. For example, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a document some time ago, which clearly stipulates the preferential policies and financial subsidies for the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and related industries. . How can hydrogen energy be lost on the road to “de-fuel” in the future?

Edit summary:

Although the UK’s 2030 ban is not the first shot by a developed country on fuel vehicles, it can be called a resounding shot. Behind the one-paper policy is a severe spur to the new energy/battery industry in the UK, and a severe beating of companies that are relatively late in the electrification transformation. From an industrial perspective, long-term reliance on government subsidies cannot create a benign market. Only by creating demand from the root can it provide consumers with motivation and allow manufacturers to produce truly excellent products.

Just as James May, a well-known British automotive media person, said when he tested the first-generation Toyota Mirai, in today’s world, if you really love cars, the taste of gasoline, and the gear, then go buy an electric car. , Because only the mainstream electric cars are sold well, the manufacturers will have the leisure to create really interesting models for enthusiasts, after all, these people's needs are few. When a trend is becoming irreversible, why not embrace it with open arms?