[YesAuto News] The Chinese auto market has seen negative growth since the third quarter of this year. Focusing on the passenger car sector, the sales volume in July was 1.59 million, down 5.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume in August was 1.79 million, down 4.6% year-on-year. At present, the September sales data has not been released, but according to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers reached 58.9% in September, which means that the inventory is running at a high level and the market situation in September is very sluggish.
Although the growth rate of the auto market has slowed down, experts generally hold a positive attitude towards the Chinese auto market. On October 10, the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers and Volkswagen Group (China) jointly organized the “2018 China Automotive Industry Development Report” press conference. After the press conference, several experts accepted media interviews .
Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, believes that despite the market downturn in the third quarter of this year, it is still possible to remain optimistic, and consumer demand still exists. He said that in 2017, the annual sales volume of China's auto market reached 28.88 million vehicles, with a volume of nearly 30 million vehicles, but it is far from reaching the ceiling. It is expected that it will grow to 40 million vehicles in 2030.
Shi Yaodong, deputy director of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also maintains a positive view of the Chinese auto market. He believes that the Chinese auto market has shifted from high-speed growth to a new stage of medium-to-low growth. phenomenon. But compared with the automobile industry in developed countries, they have also maintained a sustained low growth rate for decades, and the growth rate has not exceeded 5%. In the new stage of development, my country's automobile industry must think about how to enhance market competitiveness, rationally allocate resources, and optimize the industrial structure in the context of a slight increase in the market.
Fu Yuwu said that looking back at the entire development history of China's auto industry, when China joined the WTO, it was the most tense moment of China's auto industry, and even suspected that it would be wiped out. Today's Chinese industry is facing a new round of challenges. The implementation of policies such as the liberalization of joint venture share ratios and the reduction of import tariffs has created a more adequate competitive environment for the Chinese auto market. However, it is worth noting that today China's auto industry is no longer as poor as it was in the past. Geely, SAIC, GAC, Great Wall and other companies have grown, and Chinese companies have accumulated certain core competitiveness.
Zhang Suixin, executive vice president of Volkswagen China, also said that some Chinese brands have been able to compete with international brands, and mid-range products are no longer inferior. He believes that what Chinese companies lack is brand recognition, because brand power requires long-term historical accumulation to form. He also said that even if the joint venture share ratio is liberalized, the entire Chinese auto market will not change much. Both foreign and Chinese auto companies will recognize the value of the joint venture. Taking the Volkswagen Jianghuai joint venture as an example, he said that he never thought of starting anew.
Although the inventory pressure of auto dealers in September has been very heavy, the China Automobile Dealers Association predicts that the inventory pressure of dealers will increase next month, and the inventory coefficient may rise further. From the perspective of market demand, 57.3% of dealers believe that the market in October and September will remain basically flat, 18.3% believe that the market will decline further, and only 24% believe that the market will rise. On the whole, the month-on-month sales volume in October may be the same as that in September, but the year-on-year negative growth will continue, and the auto market will also be in a particularly sluggish state.