[YesAuto Industry] 71 billion, this is the money that people deposit in banks every day in the first quarter; -19%: this is the decline in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter; -39%, this is the decline in domestic auto insurance sales in the first quarter. The state has issued a series of favorable policies to promote automobile consumption, which are intended to save the car market and even the economy. It is difficult for ordinary people to buy cars, and it is also difficult for car companies to sell cars. How to do this business well in 2020 is the biggest question mark in the minds of all car companies.
“Wait, wait for retaliatory consumption.”
The three-month COVID-19 epidemic has taught the entire auto industry to self-heal. In the dark night of the auto market, everyone needs a beam of light.
Entering May, car companies have successively released sales data for April. The year-on-year changes are no longer all negative. There has even been a double-digit and three-digit year-on-year increase. The wave of “retaliatory consumption” seems to be coming. Up–
◆Is retaliatory consumption coming?
not at all. It can only be said to be a wave of small waves.
The year-on-year high growth rate of many car companies was actually driven by the “new cars” that were not listed in April last year, such as Changan Ford's Ruiji and Focus Active, such as Hongqi HS5, Geely ICON, Weilai ES6, New Baojun series, etc .
Therefore, the Xiaoyangchun auto market in April was only a concentrated realization of consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic, and the auto market has not yet returned to the growth rate of the same period in the past two years.
The April auto market data is not complete. Let's take a look at this year's auto consumption trends with more comprehensive compulsory traffic insurance data.
In the first quarter of this year, the domestic new car insurance sales volume was 3.244 million, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. However, the sales of luxury brand cars are still strong. The year-on-year decline of 21.7% is much lower than the overall auto market. If imported cars are excluded, the decline is only 17.9%. The decline of mainstream foreign brands and Chinese brands is higher than the decline of the overall auto market.
Therefore, on the one hand, BMW’s 4S stores are very busy, and the suspended consumption of the wealthy has recovered strongly; on the one hand, 16 auto companies have no revenue in the first quarter, and 50 auto companies have sold less than 1,000 vehicles.
When we subdivide the data from the brand to the model level, we can find that different model levels are under different pressures. The more you work at the level of mass consumption, the higher the decline. Compact cars, small SUVs, micro cars, small cars, and mini cars The year-on-year declines of both surpassed the overall auto market.
And compact SUVs, mid-size SUVs, mid-size sedans, medium and large sedans and large sedans all performed exceptionally “deficient”, and the decline of medium and large SUVs, medium and large sized sedans and large sedans was less than 30%. The reason for the continued robustness of high-end consumption comes from the financial strength of the fund owners.
What does this show? The rich do not need revenge, they have been spending; the poor want revenge, but they are not capable.
◆No money! No revenge
On April 28, the Central Bank released a set of survey data: In the first quarter, 53% of residents tended to “save more”, an increase of 7.3% from the previous quarter; while only 22% of residents tended to “consume more”. A decrease of 6% from the previous quarter.
At the same time, the residents’ income perception index in the first quarter was 41.6%, down 11% from the previous quarter; the income confidence index was 45.9%, down 7.2% from the previous quarter.
Compared with consumption, more people tend to save. In the first quarter, household deposits increased by 6.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 400 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the average daily national deposits in the first quarter was 71 billion yuan.
An epidemic has further widened the gap between the rich and the poor.
According to a survey from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, in the first quarter, more than 86% of households with an annual income of less than 50,000 yuan before tax had their wealth remained the same or shrank; the proportion of households with an annual income of 50,000-100,000 yuan before tax exceeded 72. %; For families with an annual income of 100,000 to 300,000 yuan before tax, this proportion exceeds 59%.
What does this mean? For most people, becoming poor is the main theme. In the face of consumers' overall pessimistic income expectations, how can rigid needs be met?
◆Hou Lang may be here
Tracking the clue data of Autohome from January last year to March this year, two trends can be found: one is that the car purchase is the highest for models with 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, followed by models with 120,000 to 150,000 yuan; the second is in March. There are three clues that the price range has increased. The price range of 90,000 to 120,000 yuan, 120,000 to 150,000 yuan, and 150,000 to 200,000 yuan models, especially the 90 to 120,000 yuan models, have the highest increase.
The clue data also truly reflects the consumption trends in different regional markets: high-priced cars have a high degree of deviation in the regional market, while 90,000 to 200,000 is the price range close to the attention of markets at all levels. What does this show? If you are a decision maker in a car company, then the price range of 90,000 to 200,000 or even 90 to 150,000 must be taken seriously.
What I said earlier was the popularity of car buying. According to the transaction, the current sales of models with a price of less than 150,000 yuan accounted for nearly 60% of the domestic auto market. Another group of more detailed price classifications shows that in the first quarter of this year, the proportion of sales of 60,000-90,000 models rose from 13% last year to 16%, and that of 90,000-130,000 models rose from 31% to 34%. Staged consumption degradation has already occurred.
Therefore, not expecting retaliatory consumption and satisfying consumption that matches economic strength is the light in the auto market.
It is foreseeable that this year, the proportion of vehicle consumption under 150,000 yuan is likely to continue to grow. This “half of the country” is the life and death field for car companies to ensure sales, acquire first-time car consumers and cultivate brand loyalty.
However, the fighting in the market below 150,000 yuan will also become more and more fierce, and the quality and price wars will be staged. Only car companies that warm up with consumers can survive the cold winter.
Perhaps, this crisis will enable ordinary people to drive suitable cars, and it will also enable car companies to face the real needs of consumers in a very sincere manner.