[YesAuto News] According to the Wall Street Journal recently, there are more than 487 electric vehicle manufacturers in China, and overcapacity is inevitable. The Wall Street Journal believes that based on the “Made in China 2025” strategy, China is promoting the rise of ten key industries including the new energy automobile industry. The strong support of policies and funds from the state and local governments is the explosive growth of Chinese electric vehicle companies. The source of power.
However, these companies cannot all survive. UBS analyst Paul Gong said, “This industry has invested a lot of money, but a lot of it will be wasted.” Some auto analysts directly pointed out that only 1% of electric car companies will survive in the future. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal believes that as many car manufacturers enter the market, overcapacity will inevitably flood the Chinese electric car market. Dan Wang, a technical analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong, also said, “China wants to become a high-tech power and catch up with the technological frontier. One of the costs may be overcapacity.”
With the rapid development of new energy vehicles in recent years, the problem of overcapacity has begun to be slowly paid attention to by the industry. According to statistics from the China Distribution Association, from 2015 to the end of June 2017, there were more than 200 new energy vehicle projects planned to be built in China, and the relevant investment amount was as high as RMB 100 billion. The new energy vehicle production capacity of various car companies has been disclosed. It plans to exceed 20 million vehicles, which is 10 times the planned sales target for 2020.
Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, introduced at a public meeting in May this year that there are 71 complete vehicle groups in China and 455 new energy vehicle companies, of which 49 are new power car manufacturers. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's corporate and product announcements, a total of 64 auto companies actually produced new energy vehicles in 2017, showing that most auto companies have not yet formed actual production capacity.
The Chinese government is tightening investment supervision on new energy vehicle projects. On the one hand, it encourages companies to revitalize zombie qualifications and use existing production capacity through strict control of production qualifications; on the other hand, it is also strictly controlling the new production capacity of qualified enterprises, requiring The company's capacity utilization rate is higher than the industry average, and product technical indicators have reached the industry's leading level. In the context of stricter supervision, some new car companies may be eliminated and left without the opportunity to actually start production.
Although it is not yet possible to completely conclude that new energy vehicles have overcapacity, the Chinese government is paying close attention to possible overcapacity risks, and has established a capacity monitoring and early warning mechanism, requiring automobile and key component companies to increase the relevant production capacity of the previous year. The situation should be reported to the provincial investment authority and copied to the investment authority of the State Council before the end of January each year.