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[YesAuto News] As we all know, China's new energy vehicle market has its special aspect, that is, the “policy orientation” is relatively obvious. Due to the inclination of “pure electric vehicles” in national policies, the growth rate of the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market has always been suppressed. However, this situation may be reversed in 2018. According to relevant statistics, from January to August 2018, in the new energy passenger vehicle market, the monthly growth rate of the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market has always been It is higher than the month-on-year growth rate of the “pure electric vehicle” market, and this trend may continue. So, will 2018 really be the year of counterattack for “plug-in hybrid vehicles”? How long can the rapid development of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” last? Who will be the first wave of dividends in the “plug-in hybrid car” market? Will the country's “policy orientation” affect the development of the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market? Maybe after reading this analysis, there will be an answer.

The year of counterattack in the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market in 2018

In order to have a more intuitive experience, we have selected the sales and growth data of the two segmented passenger car markets of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” and “pure electric vehicles” from 2013 to 2018. Let’s take a look. Is 2018 really the year of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” counterattack.

Judging from the sales data of the two major market segments from 2013 to 2017, the sales and growth data of the “pure electric vehicle” passenger car market have been crushing the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” passenger car market. . During the period from 2013 to 2017, although the sales growth rate of “pure electric vehicles” passenger vehicles has been declining, both the overall sales and the market growth rate are much higher than those of “plug-in hybrid vehicles”. The car market (of course, it is necessary to exclude the abnormal growth rate caused by the low base of plug-in hybrid vehicle sales in the early stage).

However, this state has changed since January 2018. Judging from the sales data of the two major passenger vehicle market segments from January to August 2018, the overall sales data of the “pure electric vehicle” passenger vehicle market fluctuates significantly, while the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” passenger vehicle market The overall sales volume of the car market has been in a state of steady growth; from the year-on-year growth data of the two major passenger car segments from January to August 2018, the “plug-in hybrid car” passenger car market The year-on-year growth is basically in the three-digit range, but the year-on-year growth rate of the “pure electric vehicle” passenger car market has dropped to double digits or even single digits.

From the performance of several data, we can see that the overall market status of “pure electric vehicles” passenger vehicles has tended to a low growth state, while the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” passenger car market continues to show a high growth state. , And this state will continue to be maintained. In addition, in the dimension of new energy passenger vehicle sales, the sales volume of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” has increased significantly compared with previous years. If this state remains until the end of 2018, then “plug-in hybrid vehicles” will complete the counterattack.

Who will be the first wave of dividend harvesters when the market surges?

With the soaring of the passenger car market for “plug-in hybrid vehicles”, the launch of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” products has become the most important product strategy of major automakers in 2018. According to incomplete statistics, there are already Volkswagen Tiguan L PHEV, Buick VELITE6, Lynk & Co 02 PHEV, Lynk & Co 03 PHEV, Changan CS75 PHEV, Dongfeng Fengguang 580 PHEV and other plug-in hybrid models lined up for the market. Of course, these are all things in the future, and car brands that have previously released plug-in hybrid products will become the first wave of dividends in the “plug-in hybrid car” passenger car market.

According to the sales data ranking of new energy passenger car market by model in August 2018, among the 32 new energy vehicle products with sales statistics, the number of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” has reached 12, which is close to half. BYD-Tang New Energy became the best-selling new energy product in August with the sales data of 5,043 vehicles, and it was a plug-in hybrid vehicle product. In addition to BYD-Tang New Energy, BYD-Qin and Roewe ei6 occupy the fifth and sixth positions in the rankings with the sales data of 4091 and 4,012 vehicles, respectively. It can be seen that the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” products are in the end market. Charisma is increasing. Looking at the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” products in the entire ranking, BYD, SAIC Roewe, and Geely have become high-frequency brands, which means that these three Chinese brands have begun to enjoy the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market. In the near future, more car brands will set their sights on “plug-in hybrid vehicles.”

From the perspective of the international new energy vehicle market environment, the market ratio of “pure electric vehicles” and “plug-in hybrid vehicles” in mature automobile markets such as Europe and the United States is about 1:1. In the new energy vehicle market, “pure electric vehicles” The market ratio of “cars” and “plug-in hybrid vehicles” is about 2.3:1, which is far from reaching a mature level. From this ratio, the market for “plug-in hybrid vehicles” will continue to develop very much in the future. space.

How long “plug-in hybrid vehicles” can last is actually a contest between “market” and “policy”

Of course, as stated at the beginning of the article, China's new energy vehicle market is clearly “policy-oriented.” In the new energy vehicle industry, “pure electric vehicles” can be said to have always been a “national policy”, and for “plug-in hybrid vehicles”, although they are also included in the overall category of “new energy vehicles”, their The various preferential policies enjoyed are not equivalent to “pure electric vehicles”.

Taking the new energy vehicle subsidy policy as an example, we have calculated the subsidy standards from 2013 to 2018. From the above chart, we can find that in the early stage of the development of the new energy automobile industry, the basic national supplement for “pure electric vehicle” passenger cars can reach up to 60,000 yuan (aside from the variable of the coefficient, the same below), but for “pure electric vehicle” passenger cars, “Plug-in hybrid vehicles” are up to 35,000 yuan. After a series of new energy vehicle subsidies and decline mechanisms, the basic national subsidy for “pure electric vehicles” passenger cars is up to 50,000 yuan, while for “plug-in hybrid vehicles” it is reduced to 22,000 yuan. In other words, from the national top-level design level, the guiding orientation for “pure electric vehicles” is very strong. Then, as the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market and consumer demand continue to grow, can the force of the “market” and the force of the “policy” be equal? This will become an important determinant of whether the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” can finally complete the counterattack.

Previously, Wilson had released the sales of new energy vehicles in the top ten cities in the country and the sales proportion of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. From the above chart, we can clearly see that in Beijing, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Liuzhou, and Nanchang, the sales of “pure electric vehicle” products accounted for more than 90%. The reason is actually very closely related to the “policy” guidance of the local government. On the other hand, for cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai that have relatively enlightened policies on “plug-in hybrid vehicles”, the market share of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” is much higher. In other words, the “policy” orientation has a very strong influence on the future development of the “plug-in hybrid vehicle” market. Once the “policy” wind direction changes suddenly, the high growth of “plug-in hybrid vehicles” in recent months may come to an abrupt end. For another example, if “plug-in hybrid vehicles” are the same as “traditional fuel vehicles” and do not enjoy any rights, then consumers will continue to choose “plug-in hybrid vehicles”?

In the end, it is the “market” orientation that will bet on “plug-in hybrid vehicles”, or wait for the changes and wait for the policy trend. Perhaps it is the car brand that intends to launch “plug-in hybrid vehicles” products. A little tangled.