1. Home
  2. >
  3. Car News
  4. >
  5. Hot News
  6. >
  7. Super Broadcast: How much...

[YesAuto New Energy] Super broadcast, especially this week, why? Because the new energy subsidy policy in 2020 has finally been released. Compared with last year’s policy changes, although the New Deal this year did not show a significant drop in the amount of subsidies, it has put forward some “subtle” requirements in other areas, and these settings may have a butterfly-like impact on the market. So, what is the impact of the New Deal on our car purchase? Should we hurry up and buy now, or should we wait and see? Let's come together today to dig out the “secret words” behind the New Deal.

Major changes in China's new energy passenger vehicle subsidy policy in 2020

1. The overall subsidy declines , among which models with a battery life of less than 300km will no longer be subsidized.

2. Establish a price threshold . The selling price of new energy passenger vehicles before subsidies must be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan).

3. Encourage “replacement” , and vehicles with “replacement mode” are not subject to price thresholds;

Fourth, the number of declaration requirements , if the car company declares subsidies, the number of cleared vehicles in a single declaration should reach 10,000;

5. Users require that non-private users (operating vehicles) cannot receive a full subsidy (70%).

6. April 23 to July 22, 2020 is the transitional period of the New Deal.

Subsidies will be reduced again by 10%-15% overall

Compared with the changes in subsidies in 2019 and 2018, this year's new policy continues to raise requirements on the technical indicator of battery life, and the amount of subsidies has also declined again. The overall reduction is 10% (pure electric) and 15% (plug-in power). Hybrid), for example, for models with a range of 300-400km, the subsidy has been lowered from 18,000 yuan to 16,200 yuan. However, if you want to enjoy the subsidy this year, the price of the vehicle before the subsidy must be within 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan). The specific adjustment amount can refer to the following table:

2019/2020 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Subsidy Adjustment List
Types of
index 2019 year 2020 year Remarks
Pure electric passenger car Pure electric battery life R (working condition method, kilometers) 250≤R<300 18,000 yuan

0

1. The subsidy amount is reduced by 10%

2. Cancellation of subsidies for less than 300 kilometers

300≤R<400 16,200 yuan
R≥400 25,000 yuan 22,500 yuan
Battery system energy density and corresponding subsidy coefficient (Wh/kg) 125 (inclusive)-140 0.8 times 0.8 times The energy density threshold, bins and coefficients of the battery system have not been adjusted
145 (inclusive)-160 0.9 times 0.9 times
≥160 1 times 1 times
According to the degree of increase in vehicle energy consumption compared with the restriction threshold and the corresponding subsidy coefficient
Increase the energy consumption threshold by 10% (inclusive) -20% compared to 2018 0.8 times /
In 2020, the subsidy policy will switch to the dual-point threshold to be implemented in 2021 on the threshold of electricity consumption, or tighten it by about 5% on the basis of 2109

Increase the threshold of energy consumption by 20% (inclusive) -35% compared to 2018 1 times

Increase the energy consumption threshold by more than 35% compared to 2018 1.1 times

The newer energy consumption threshold is increased by 0% (inclusive) -10% /
0.8 times

The newer energy consumption threshold is increased by 10% (inclusive) -25% 1 times

The newer energy consumption threshold is increased by more than 35% 1.1 times
Upper limit of unit battery power subsidy (yuan/kWh) 550/kWh 500/kWh The upper limit of the battery power amount is reduced by 10%
Plug-in hybrid (including program extension) passenger car Pure electric battery life is between 50-80 kilometers Ratio of fuel consumption in state B to the standard limit 55% (inclusive) -60% 5,000 yuan 4,250 yuan

1. Continuation of the 2019 technical standards without adjustments

2. The subsidy amount is reduced by 15%

<55%
10,000 yuan 85,000 yuan
Pure electric battery life is not less than 80 kilometers Power consumption per 100 kilometers in state A should meet the threshold requirements for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2019
10,000 yuan 85,000 yuan
Analysis source: China Automobile Research Institute; Watchmaking: Autohome Industry Channel

It can be seen that the New Deal has once again raised the requirements for the cruising range. Products below 300km will no longer enjoy subsidies, and the subsidies for products with a range of more than 300km will also have a 10% decline. However, some commentators said that for some brand models, the subsidy cut has little effect, even if the car companies are responsible for the difference in the refund and compensation, the cost is within an acceptable range. At the same time, for battery energy density requirements, the new policy does not raise the upper limit compared to 2019, but only slightly increases the lower limit, from 120-140Wh/kg to 125-140Wh/kg.

Some commentators stated that the reduction of the new policy in terms of subsidies is within an acceptable range for some brands. After the implementation of the new policy, even if the brand bears the price difference caused by the refund and compensation, the cost is within the controllable range. Therefore, I believe that after the introduction of the New Deal, some brands will launch subsidy insuring plans, etc., to pay for the losses caused by the decline in subsidies for consumers.

300,000 yuan subsidy threshold may start a price war

Although the subsidy decline is not large, as mentioned above, the prerequisite for enjoying the subsidy is that the price of the vehicle before the subsidy should be less than 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan). This requirement seems simple, but it actually points the finger at the current time. All models worth 200,000 to 400,000 yuan, especially the domestically-produced Tesla Model 3, which is currently booming.

According to the requirements of the New Deal, it is clear that products currently priced at more than 300,000 yuan will no longer be able to enjoy subsidies after the transition period (July 22), but it may not be that simple. For example, for some products that are very close to the price of 300,000 yuan, will the brand use price adjustments or other means to let the product's pre-subsidy price fall within 300,000 yuan? For example, the domestic Model 3 standard battery life version.

The New Deal was just released, and many people immediately expressed their opinions on the Internet. They believed that the 300,000 yuan threshold of the New Deal was clearly “tailored” for Model 3. In the price range of 200,000 to 400,000 yuan, the price of Model 3 may be It will affect the whole body, resulting in changes in the competitive landscape and pricing strategies of all products in this range, and the consequences can be imagined.

Ideal Motors CEO Li Xiang previously stated in a live broadcast that the current manufacturing cost of the domestic Tesla Model 3 allows it to have room for price reduction, and the release of the New Deal may logically help the Model 3 to adjust the price reasonably and legally. And it will also affect the pattern of the entire 200,000 to 400,000 yuan market. After all, almost all products currently at this price have locked their opponents to Model 3 and the undelivered Model Y.

However, many people speculate that the domestic Model 3 is most likely to adjust the price of the standard endurance version, while the current long-lasting rear-drive version, which is currently the most popular, maintains the status quo. After all, the price of 366,500 yuan before the subsidy can increase the possibility of 300,000 The sex is low. Is it the best time to place an order for the long-life version now? Not necessarily, pay attention! We just say “the possibility of price reduction is low” rather than “no possibility”, because July is the time when Tesla Model 3 will change to use the Ningde era battery. There are still variables and we still need to wait and see.

Therefore, even if the domestic Model 3 long-life rear-drive version cannot enter the 300,000 yuan mark, it still has the possibility of lowering the price after July. Therefore, it is the best policy for consumers to keep the currency and wait and see. Sla has not made a final price adjustment, and it is not too late to place an order before the subsidy adjustment. According to the New Deal, during the transition period, will the subsidy for purchasing the domestically-made Tesla standard battery life upgrade and long battery life Model 3 be halved, and it will still meet the 2020 technical indicator requirements. However, the subsidy amount will be reduced due to the impact of the refund.

In any case, the 300,000 yuan threshold of the new policy will have an impact on the 200,000 to 400,000 yuan market, and the introduction of Tesla into the battlefield is also to allow China's new energy market to form a catfish effect, and competition will enter a critical stage. In particular, there are still several popular models to be launched, and the introduction of the New Deal may also make these models to be released “uneasy.”

At present, 300-400,000 models have been listed on the market, including GAC Aion LX, HYCAN007, Roewe MARVEL X, and Denshi X pure electric version. These models may be adjusted in price or marketing strategy due to the launch of the New Deal. Just as the butterfly effect mentioned in the previous article, if the product of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan drops to within 300,000, and the product of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan continues to drop, the pricing of the entire new energy market may undergo a round of reshuffle.

●The New Deal encourages “replacement”, Weilai becomes the biggest beneficiary

The new subsidy policy pointed out that in order to encourage the development of a new business model of “swap” and accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles, vehicles with the “swap model” are not restricted by the price threshold of 300,000 yuan. Therefore, from the current point of view, Weilai will become the The direct benefit brand of the policy. As of 2020, Weilai has built 125 swap stations covering 53 cities across the country. Therefore, ES6 and ES8 will not be restricted by the pre-subsidy price and will normally enjoy the subsidies of the New Deal.

Behind the encouragement of “replacement” is actually the advocacy of “separation of vehicle and electricity” for new energy vehicles. Many people know that batteries in pure electric vehicles account for high costs, especially for high-endurance models, the battery cost even exceeds 50% of the vehicle manufacturing cost, so for consumers, if the vehicle and the battery can be sold separately , No matter in the purchase, upgrade or the later residual value of the vehicle, it will solve the current market cost problem to a certain extent.

Li Bin believes that battery replacement is a typical case of separation of car and electricity. The battery can be rented by users as an asset, and it can be paid in installments, or it can be replaced at any time when the battery technology upgrades in the future. To achieve separation of vehicle and electricity, vehicles must be developed from design to response supporting facilities at the beginning of research and development, and the cost is also huge.

The New Deal’s support for battery replacement can also be regarded as affirmation of Weilai’s investment in the past few years. Weilai’s vice president Shen Fei also said on Weibo after the release of the New Deal: “We have decided to replace the battery at the time of its establishment. There are more, and more and more users, industries, and competent authorities agree that the power exchange will proceed in an orderly manner.”

● Required quantity to be declared and user requirements

In addition to the 300,000 yuan threshold, the New Deal also increases the scale of car companies, requiring that from 2020, the number of new energy passenger vehicles declared and cleared should reach 10,000 vehicles, which means that some vehicles have just started delivery or have not yet started delivery. As far as enterprises are concerned, they will face greater pressure or even risk of interruption. For example, Byton Motors, Skyrim Motors, etc.

In addition, the New Deal also pointed out that non-private users are not allowed to receive full subsidies. For new energy passenger vehicles purchased or used for operation by non-private users, subsidies will be given at 0.7 times the corresponding subsidy amount; this policy is also aimed at some new car forces. And only supply products in the operating market.

Summary: Price wars will be the most straightforward competition

The food and grass are the first to move forward, the price is the most straightforward weapon for the product, and the price war will also be the most straightforward competition. When the new subsidy policy establishes the threshold of “300,000”, in addition to helping the market control prices, it also hopes to increase the survival of the fittest and product competition within the price range, but no matter what the outcome is, consumers will benefit. After the release of the New Deal, we suggest that consumers stay on the sidelines for the time being. We predict that there will be more price protection measures or brand price adjustment policies in the near future, and the Autohome New Energy Channel will also track and summarize the first time and provide you with timely information. Help on choosing the car.