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  7. Superbroadcast: Is the subsidy...

[YesAuto New Energy] Super broadcast, every week. This week is a “New Year's Eve” week. First of all, I wish everyone a happy new year and all the best. Let us first set the time back to the last day of 2020. The Ministry of Finance and other four ministries have jointly issued a new energy subsidy policy for 2021. The 20% rebate rate is not too large, but it proves that the “trend” is still slowly receding. On the first day of 2021, Tesla dropped a “depth bomb” in China's new energy market-the domestic Model Y announced the price and the new Model 3 officially dropped again. If “returning to make up” is a slowly receding tide, then Tesla is definitely a hungry shark on this shallow beach, waiting for an opportunity.

First, let us first understand what information will be conveyed by the new energy subsidy policy in 2021? On December 31, 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued a number of notices on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (for details, please click here). We have also sorted out the few refunds that everyone is most concerned about. Information: In 2021, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20%; NEDC has a cruising range of 400 kilometers or more and a subsidy of 18,000 yuan; the price of vehicles before the subsidy must be less than 300,000 yuan, etc.

However, in addition to the main information above, we also found more regulations worth digging deeper. For example, the subsidy policy mentioned: “The number of new energy passenger vehicle companies that declare purchase subsidies and liquidation vehicles in a single declaration should reach 10,000”. In other words, the annual sales of car companies need to reach at least 10,000 to qualify for the subsidy. This largely limits the behavior of “defrauding compensation”.

Judging from the sales of some new power brands from January to November 2020, Weilai (36721 units), Ideal Motors (26498 units), Xiaopeng Motors (20586 units), Weimar Motors (19648 units) and Nezha Motors ( 13,424 units) have exceeded 10,000 units, but there are still some new power brands that are not optimistic, such as zero-run cars (7516 units), Ai Chi cars (2017 units), etc. If they fail to achieve a breakthrough in sales in 2021, A large amount of subsidy costs will be lost. It can be seen that the policy leaves little trial and error opportunities for new power brands.

It is worth mentioning that after the release of the new energy subsidy policy in 2020, a transition period of up to 3 months was also set. However, the newly released policy does not continue to set a transition period. Instead, the new policy will be implemented directly from January 1, 2021. This also reflects the increasing intensity of new energy vehicle refunds in the future.

We have also noticed a detail. Unlike the new energy subsidy policy released on April 23, 2020, this time there is no mention of the “in principle, the maximum annual subsidy scale is about 2 million vehicles”. According to data from the China Automobile Association, my country's new energy vehicle sales in 2019 were 1.242 million units, and the sales volume from January to November 2020 was 1.109 million units, which is still a long way from the annual sales of 2 million units.

In addition, the notice also mentioned: “Encourage companies to actively carry out defect investigations and active recalls”, and for those who are administratively punished by the competent department for major accidents caused by the inadequacy of the safety management system of the production enterprise, they know that the product has quality problems If a recall is voluntarily caused, a major accident is caused, or a recall is ordered by the competent authority , measures such as suspension or cancellation of the recommended model catalog, suspension or cancellation of financial subsidies, etc., depending on the degree. It can be seen that the policy is becoming more and more stringent on product quality and safety, which also means that car companies must be fully responsible for their products, otherwise they will lose their tickets to the game.

Editor's point of view:

Compared with the previous new energy rebate policy, although the 20% rebate rate is not large this time, it still has a more obvious impact on some traditional Chinese brands, especially new power brands. First of all, in terms of products, car buyers in the price range of about 100,000 yuan are more sensitive to prices, and this range is the main force of new energy market sales. Therefore, it is particularly important to find a balance between cost and quality ; In terms of sales volume, the subsidy entry threshold for annual sales of 10,000 units has also become a not-so-large “blocking” that some start-up car companies will face, but in any case, this will help the healthy development of the industry and spur the needs of car companies. Always focus on the needs of consumers and the market as the main force .

As you can see in the previous topic, the 20% decline is relatively “gentle” for new energy car companies. However, the market competition is cruel. On the first day of 2021, Tesla officially announced the prices of the domestic Model Y and the new Model 3. The drastically reduced prices are enough to make every brand in the new energy automobile industry feel There was a hint of chill behind him.

First of all, from the price point of view, the domestic Model Y has launched two versions, of which the “entry” long-life version is priced at 339,900 yuan, equipped with dual-motor all-wheel drive, 0-100km/h acceleration time of 5.1 seconds, NEDC The cruising range is 594 kilometers; in addition, the Performance version is priced at 369,900 yuan, the 0-100km/h acceleration time is only 3.7 seconds, and the cruising range can reach 480 kilometers (WLTP estimate).

The price of the new (2021) Model 3 is no less than that of Model Y. The price and configuration of the upgraded version of the rear-wheel drive version of the car's standard battery life have not changed. The subsidized price is 249,900 yuan; Performance The high-performance all-wheel-drive version uses front and rear dual motors, and the 0-100km/h acceleration time is only 3.3 seconds, and the price is directly lowered by 79,900 yuan compared with the previous model, and the price is only 339,900 yuan. As soon as this price came out, Tesla's “True Fragrance” law came into effect again, and it became even more difficult to tell who is the real “M3” for a while.

What's interesting is that Tao Lin, Tesla's global vice president, said in an interview with the media: “The current goal of Tesla's localization rate has been basically achieved, and it is unlikely to continue to reduce prices in the future.” Only a few days later, the two “volume” models of Tesla announced the new prices, and for a while, there was a lot of discussion on the Internet.

It is understood that on the day Tesla announced the price, its official website server was paralyzed due to too many visitors. We have seen a similar situation when the new Apple mobile phone was released. Some Weibo netizens joked: “Tesla sells at this price, just like the iPhone 12 sells for 2,999 yuan. Who can stand it.” For a while, Tesla once again became the “price butcher” in China’s new energy market. “, just like a “combined” harvester, madly collecting batch after batch of orders.

Editor's point of view:

When we look at the “subsidy decline” and “Tesla's official demotion” together, we will find that Tesla is expected to become the biggest beneficiary of China's new energy market in 2021. First of all, Tesla's consumer groups are not very sensitive to prices, so the subsidy policy has little effect on it. Under this premise, Tesla has formed a strong supplier barrier and scale effect, which can further squeeze costs and improve product competitiveness. Such a reciprocating cycle will make the gap between Tesla and other car companies even greater. Come bigger.

Let's go back to the question mentioned above. Tesla announced the “delegation” on the first day of 2021. Who is the most panicking? From the current point of view, it is not only new energy car companies that I want to panic. Maybe Tesla has begun to eat into the market share of traditional fuel vehicles. What do you think?