1. Home
  2. >
  3. Car News
  4. >
  5. Completed Vehicle
  6. >
  7. The national VI will...

[YesAuto News] At present, major OEMs are actively preparing to deploy National VI emission vehicles in response to the early implementation of National VI in some cities/provinces. In fact, every emission upgrade will inevitably cause many problems, such as how the OEMs respond, how consumers buy vehicles, and what impact will it have on the automotive market. This time it is the same, but the problems caused by this emission upgrade are more difficult than before, especially in the area of cleaning up stock vehicles. The author believes that there are four main reasons:

First, the implementation of the purchase tax reduction and exemption policy in 2017 overdrafted market demand in advance, which led to a decline in car sales in 2018. This is already stressful for OEMs to sell new cars. In addition to clearing inventory of cars, it is no different. “Another straw is added to the back of the camel.” Second, relevant data shows that the inventory coefficient of OEMs and distributors has been at a high level in the past year. In the market downturn, coupled with the high inventory coefficient, it is really true. “Leaks in the house are even raining overnight.” Third, the relevant investigation agency shows that the current Chinese brand vehicles are significantly slower than joint ventures and imports in launching the National VI models. However, as more and more cities and regions announce the implementation of the National VI in advance. , Chinese brand cars will be slightly passive and awkward in product response. This will to a certain extent hinder the pace of some OEMs in responding to market changes, including clearing inventory cars, even if China’s national five cars carry out large-scale price cuts and promotions in 2019. The expected effect may not be very obvious. It can be said that “one step is slow, and every step is slow.” Fourth, the national VI emission upgrade must also meet the national VI requirements for hybrid vehicles, and the cost and technical requirements of hybrid vehicles in the emission upgrade process are relatively high, which is important for the current sales momentum of hybrid vehicles. As far as the car is concerned, it can be regarded as “a blow to the head.”

Based on the above reasons, this topic is specially made. Its purpose is mainly to analyze the current situation of the implementation of National VI, the status quo of major OEMs, and investigate the considerations and practices of OEMs when they release stock vehicles from National V, so that people in the industry can learn from each other and learn from each other. In addition, we will also present the collected information to readers by verifying whether there will be a large-scale and substantial price reduction promotion for the National Five vehicles that car owners are concerned about.

Analyze the situation:

Let’s take a look at how imminent is the implementation of National VI emissions in advance?

Regarding the interpretation of the National VI emission standards, our previous article “Can I Buy a National V Vehicle Interpretation of the “National VI” Emission Standards” explained it in detail. Among them, there are two time points worthy of our attention. Phase A of China VI will be fully implemented on July 1, 2020; Phase B of China VI requires full implementation on July 1, 2023. If all provinces and cities across the country implement National VI according to this time node, then auto manufacturers still have a lot of time to slowly upgrade their product emissions. However, due to serious air pollution and arduous environmental protection tasks, many provinces and cities have announced the early implementation of the National VI emission standards. According to incomplete statistics, the following provinces/cities have proposed to implement National VI emissions ahead of schedule (July 1, 2019). They are Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangzhou, Hainan, and Shenzhen ( Implemented on January 1, 2019), Chengdu, etc.

Let's take a look at some of the policy basis: In July, the State Council issued the “Three-year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense War”, which clearly stated that “from July 1, 2019, key regions, the Pearl River Delta region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region will implement the National VI emission standards ahead of schedule; In August, the Ministry of Environmental Protection released the Action Plan for Comprehensive Treatment of Air Pollution in the Fall and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas (draft for comments), which clearly stated that from January 1, 2019, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces (cities) have implemented the National VI emission standards for light-duty vehicles ahead of schedule. This means that after July 1 next year, there may be areas that account for 47% of the national market capacity that must sell National VI vehicles.

2017 passenger car terminal sales data (partial regions)
Province/City Terminal sales (unit: ten thousand)
Beijing 58.3
Tianjin City 25.5
Hebei Province 173.4
Henan Province 158.9
Shandong Province 178.1
Hainan 14.5
Guangzhou City 46.7
Shenzhen 40.3
Guangdong Province (including Guangzhou and Shenzhen) 242
Tabulation: Autohome Industry Channel; Data Source: Auto Traffic Compulsory Insurance Number

Reading this, I must be able to see how severe the current situation for the implementation of National VI emissions is. Not only the implementation time is advanced, but the scope of implementation is also very large. According to the data compiled by Autohome, it almost occupies the Chinese automobile consumer market. 50% capacity . It is understood that the current situation is like this: Many dealers in the areas where the National VI emissions are implemented in advance have reported that they are temporarily unable to sell National VI models; and many consumers also said that they do not know whether they should buy National VI or National V vehicles? There are also car owners who are worried about the vehicle’s value retention rate and whether they can be transferred when they change cars in the future; while OEMs are actively switching National VI products, they are faced with how to solve technical and cost issues; Can the supply of the company be in place in time…After a series of questions have been raised, we may be able to realize that we really paid a lot for the blue sky and white clouds.

From 2000 to 2019, it took my country 19 years to upgrade its vehicle emission standards to China VI, and this process took about 30 years in Europe and the United States. Given that we have experienced early implementation of emission upgrades, we are relatively mature in response measures. Let's take a look at how OEMs respond to emission upgrades.

Responsive measures:

Let's take a look at the status quo of OEMs' response to emission upgrades?

According to the survey data released by the China Automobile Center, in the face of the early implementation of the National VI standards, the Japanese and German models responded quickly and accelerated the production and sales of the National VI models. It is worth mentioning that Infiniti's production models have all been converted into models that meet the National VI standards, but at the same time, the overall response capacity of Chinese brands is significantly lower than that of joint venture and imported brands.

Proportion of production and sales of National VI vehicles of some auto companies
Car company/month Percentage of sales in China in 2018 (%) Percentage of China's output in 2018 (%)
July August September July August September
Dongfeng Nissan 0.0 0.5 12.8 3.9 20.1 37.7
BMW Brilliance 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.4 89.2

Dongfeng

Infiniti

27.3 39.9 63.5 87.2 100 100
SAIC GM 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.9
Guangqi Honda 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
Changan Automobile 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
Tabulation: Autohome Industry Channel; Data Source: China Automobile Center Data Resource Center

Here is a list of the proportions of six OEMs in the production and sales of National VI models (see the above figure). If you follow the regional market capacity for the advance implementation of National VI emissions compiled by the car home above ( after July 1 next year, there will be regions that account for more than 40% of the national market capacity must sell National VI vehicles ). In the production and sales volume, at least one-third of the National VI models must be launched to meet the consumer demand of these regional markets. Judging from this standard, only Dongfeng Nissan, BMW Brilliance and Dongfeng Infiniti among the above-mentioned six car companies can meet the market demand for China VI models starting from January 1 next year. However, other auto companies have unevenly launched National VI products. According to the data released by the China Automobile Center, among the TOP30 companies with the number of vehicle models that meet the National VI standards, the bottom six are: Zotye Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chery Automobile, Southeast Automobile, Shenlong Automobile and GAC Mitsubishi .

In addition, according to public data from the Motor Vehicle Environmental Protection Network, as of November 22, 2018, a total of 451,074 vehicles of 49 companies with 707 models (1138 information disclosure numbers) have conducted the National VI environmental protection information disclosure. Among them, there are 38 domestic manufacturers with 505 models and 380,336 vehicles, 11 foreign manufacturers with 202 models and 70,738 vehicles; 49 light-duty gasoline vehicle companies, 670 models, and 446,068 vehicles, and 15 light-duty hybrid vehicle companies. There are 37 models and 5006 vehicles.

What needs to be pointed out here is that among the hybrid products that meet the National VI emissions, the main manufacturers include Guangqi Honda (engines provided by Honda Motor Co., Ltd.), Nissan (China), Toyota Motor, Guangzhou Toyota, Changan Ford, Subaru, FAW Toyota, Volvo, Beijing Hyundai, Ford (China), etc. In contrast, China lags behind the brand launched in the country's six hybrid models, Geely Automobile and Dongfeng Motor only two, which Geely brand hybrid engine provided by the Volvo engine plant in Zhangjiakou, there Zhejiang Geely Royo engine Supply some models. The engine of Dongfeng Motor's National VI hybrid model is provided by nissan north america. From this appearance, it is not difficult to see that, in fact, in the National VI upgrade, the technical problems faced by Chinese brands still exist, especially in terms of engines.

●Tricky issues:

★After actively launching the National VI models, let’s take a look at how the OEMs release the National V inventory vehicles?

Regarding the issue of high inventory, we have previously published an article “High inventory is the “source of all evil”? “The auto market is poisoned”. At the time, it was suggested that many auto companies are using “stock to support performance” and it has been recognized by people in the industry many times. And the current inventory vehicles are undoubtedly National V emission, so how to release the current National V inventory vehicles? The author consulted Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of Passenger Transport Associations. He said that for the current stock cars, the general approach of the OEM is to promote sales . From the perspective of the implementation time of National VI emissions, in addition to Shenzhen, the time node of the cities/provinces that implemented National VI emissions ahead of schedule is July 1, 2019. If you calculate this way, there will be more than half a year, which is good for clearing inventory vehicles. In other words, time is enough. ” Usually two or three months, the inventory can be cleared almost. ” Cui Dongshu said.

For this reason, the author also asked the sales manager of a Haval 4S store in Beijing to verify, and the information obtained is as follows: At present, Haval’s models on sale are all National V emission vehicles (there are Euro VI emission vehicles, but no country VI vehicles), including some models. The 2019 model is also a National V emission model, and there are no National VI models currently on sale. In general, before July 1, 2019, China V models will still be the main force in the market.

In addition, according to the past emission upgrade process, there are many ways to release low-level emission vehicle stock cars, such as exporting to underdeveloped areas; flowing into the second-hand car market; returning to factories for emission upgrades. However, the practicability and economics of these methods are not as effective as promotional methods. Judging from the prediction of the China Automobile Center: In the first half of 2019, there will be a large-scale promotion of National V models . We will look at the specific promotion intensity.

Netizens care:

★Will the National Five Cars be promoted? How strong is the promotion?

Earlier, we published “Can the early implementation of National VI bring such “good things”? “, the article mentioned that a large number of currently on-sale National V emission models are expected to be promoted on a large scale in 2019. This means that consumers may be able to catch up with the National V model promotion before July 1 next year in areas where the National VI emission standards will be implemented in advance, and even the National V model promotion next year may overdraft the car market sales in the first half of 2019. As soon as this article was published, it attracted the attention of many netizens. Many netizens left a message saying, will the National Five Cars be promoted? How strong is the promotion?

In order to understand the consumption situation of the OEM’s National VI products in the terminal, the author randomly dialed a Guangqi Honda 4S store in Hainan Province. The sales staff told the author that both National V and National VI models are currently on sale, and the same vehicle country The price of the five-emission vehicle and the national six-emission vehicle is the same . “I only know that the National VI will be implemented in advance, but now the National V vehicles are still on sale, and the emission upgrade has little impact on the current.” The response of the 4S shop in Hainan Province still surprised the author. Is it facing the National VI? Is the situation in the country so calm? A salesperson at an Infiniti 4S store in Shenzhen also told reporters that Infiniti’s full range of models on sale are divided into National V and National VI emissions. Since Shenzhen will implement National VI on January 1 next year, the price is The national five cars are more favorable than the national six cars .

In addition, the author also interviewed the sales of National V and National VI emission vehicles in 4S stores of some mainstream car companies in Beijing, Tianjin and other regions. Generally speaking, it is relatively more favorable to purchase a National V vehicle before the National VI emission standard is implemented. But at the same time, the only issue that needs to be considered is that when the circulation of second-hand cars is also restricted by the National VI emission standards, it will affect the current value preservation rate of the current National V vehicles.

Editor's summary

★How should we understand the National VI emission upgrade?

    Most of the time for the implementation of National VI emissions is still in the stage of “soliciting opinions”, so the certainty of the implementation time is still unclear. Nevertheless, under the exaggeration of many media reports, the atmosphere of the “advanced implementation of National VI” has been a little tense. However, after this interview, we found that although the performance of various manufacturers in the launch time of the National VI models is uneven, from the experience of the previous emission upgrades, the OEMs and dealers have already had a relatively mature response. mechanism. Take terminal sales as an example. At present, there are many car companies that do not have the national VI emission models, but the sales rhythm is relatively orderly.

Finally, the author would like to say that although the current auto market is sluggish, the entire auto market has entered a period of micro-growth/negative growth, but this is the transition period of the Chinese auto market to a rational market. A mature automobile market does not need to pursue high growth excessively, but is healthy and orderly; a mature market needs the ability to deal with various external factors, such as dealing with emission upgrades.